Another Nothing Day..
Jack Steiman from SwingTradeOnline.com at 12/17/09
And that's with the Feds saying to leave interest rates alone for a long time to come. No fear of rising interest rates to come for our economy. The market shrugged off the good news in a way that said it knew this is what was coming all along. Good news can't break us out these days and we had lots of it today. Excellent news on the housing front and on the inflation front this morning, and then the news from the Feds, but the market can not break through this 1115/1119 wall of china. The market tried one more push when the Fed offered chocolate to the market but apparently the market is allergic these days.
On the reverse side of things, we can also look at it this way. Good news is the way in most cases these days and that may help keep a floor under this market for a while longer giving the bulls yet more opportunities to get through this thick sheet of steel. I would like to say the next few days or so should tell us more but I can't say that with any true insight. The charts, the daily charts that is, are in decent enough shape for a move higher, but the bulls can't seem to take advantage so we can only sit back and watch with continued boredom and wonder what is to come. That is the game at this moment in time. No fun for sure but that is the game.
See today’s charts at SwingTradeOnline: NYA (NYSE Composite Index Daily), MID (S&P 400 Mid Cap Index), NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index Chart), COMP (Nasdaq Composite Daily), SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index Weekly), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Daily Chart.
We started out higher on that good economic news along with solid action in Europe, especially Germany. Our market futures follow Germany almost click for click in the early going each day and then start doing their own thing based on news of varying types. We gapped up a bit although well off the morning future highs, and started to do the old churn and spin once we hit the 1115 S&P 500 area. We pulled off it a bit in to the Fed, then tried one last time before going red late, although a small bid came in with a few minutes left to turn the S&P 500 green. Once we churned after the open it was clear that only the Fed had the power to blast this market through 1115/1119. Once we churned yet again after the Fed the story was over for the bulls. Nothing bad took place technically but now you have to wonder what it will take to get this market through resistance. A flat day overall.
If we want to explore one possible place to look to for insight about whether we'll eventually get through this tough level, we have to look no further than the earnings season right around the corner. Tomorrow we have Research in Motion (RIMM) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL). Two important technology stocks. The market will be looking quite closely at how things went this past quarter, and of course, how things are looking for the next 3-12 months. Whether these companies can raise guidance, or will they need to lower them, or just keep things flat. If we can get the big caps to raise their outlooks, we have a shot yet again to make the breakout.
We have some interesting things going on out there from sector to sector. Yes, the financials are lagging quite badly although they tried some today. On the other hand, while the banks struggle, we are seeing other areas of the market do quite well and even break out. Who would think the homebuilders would break out and they did. Transports are doing great and we have a breakout on the mod caps. Bifurcation is the way here but with more sectors breaking out than breaking down. As long as we aren't seeing the majority of sectors break down we can hold on to hope that things will break up and out for another leg higher. Small caps are also performing well, so the market must think that with small and mid caps doing well, there is lots of money available for research and development for new products. That can only be construed as more bullish.
So here we are yet again. Back to the same old same old. A broken record of boredom on the road to nowhere. It's almost as if you start to wish for a break lower if we can't push higher, but the reality is, we're still in a beautiful consolidation basing pattern and that has to be respected no doubt. 1083/1085 is where the bulls must fight. 1115/1119 is where the bears must fight. Both are doing awesome jobs of defending their turf.
