Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 02/16/10

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery from 72.60 extended further today and the development argues that rebound from 69.50 is not completed yet. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 75.69 resistance will bring stronger rise towards 78.04 resistance next. As noted before, break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally. On the downside, though, below 72.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours and Daily Chart