Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 10/21/09
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 80.05 after touching upper channel resistance. Some pull back could be seen, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.17). Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 65.06 to 80.05 at 74.32 and bring rally resumption. Above 80.05 will target 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours and Daily Charts