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Currency Majors Technical Perspective

Ian G Coleman from FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team at 02/12/10


EURUSD Current price: 1.3669

Good morning. EURUSD pushed lower off the treble top and the resistance area at 1.3800 yesterday. We nearly made the lows before heading back up. O the daily chart, this move from the 5th of February could be seen as fourth wave in a ‘big picture’. It has met the criteria by reaching a 23.6% retracement at 1.3817. If this is the case then the pair could aim for 1.2706. We are going back some time now but on the wedge breakout, on the 8th of December, we did note that (wedge) breakouts can aim for the start of the wedge, so that would ‘line up’. Back to the 1hr chart, we are holding the 20 SMA at the moment, all oscillators are still negative. A break higher and I think we would only see 13720-30 area before the next move lower. We really need to see a break of the lows to signal the next possible move lower. That would be the 5th wave (and it has the reputation of being choppy). A move above the 200 SMA (13783) and I would look to 38.2% (13965) as the next upside target. This should cap the move

Support levels: 1.3653 1.3600 1.3500

Resistance levels: 1.3700 1.3730 1.3785

GBPUSD Current price: 1.5693

This whole move sideways up looks corrective. The 200 SMA (15746) and the trend line at 15762 should cap the move higher. Short term, the indicators are bullish and we are above the 20 SMA so the high maybe achieved. I would then look for a move down to the lower trend line at 15600. A break here and we may see the next daily support at 1.5252

Support levels: 1.5674 1.5600 1.5535

Resistance levels: 1.5710 1.5746 1.5762

USDJPY Current price: 8976

The daily chart shows another spinning doji at the 20 SMA. This maybe a topping sequence but we need today to confirm. 1 hr, and we have what looks to be, a very slow ascending wedge formation. The lower trend line stands at 8955. Any move higher should be capped by the 200 SMA and the 9000 handle. (The upper trend line now stands at 9020). A break lower and we should aim for the start of the wedge at 8855

Support levels: 8955 8925 8900

Resistance levels: 8993 9000 9050

USDCHF Current price: 1.0717

We had the treble bottom that was noted yesterday. Note how the 200 SMA hold four times for support. We have come back to test the previous resistance / support line at 1.0695. WE have gone very flat overnight but are holding just above the 20 SMA giving a slight bullish bias. A push up and 10780 would be the first target. A push lower and we would need to clear 10695. Even then the 200 SMA (10657) and the previous lows at 10628 should hold as support

Support levels: 1.0695 1.0657 1.0628

Resistance levels: 1.0725 1.0780 1.0800

Have a great day and a good weekend

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