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December Gold Posts New All−Time High

James Hyerczyk from ForexHound.com at 10/13/09


December Gold posted a new all-time high overnight when the U.S. Dollar weakened.  Continue to expect this market to push higher unless the Dollar mounts a dramatic turnaround. 


Equity markets are trading slightly better in the premarket.  Traders are anticipating volatility today as earnings season begins to heat up.  Key reports from Johnson and Johnson before the market and Intel after the close should have strong effects on the markets.  Traders are going to want to see increased earnings driven by better revenue.


Investors drove the markets to a new high for the year yesterday on thin volume.  When big traders return to the markets today, they may not want to pay up for stocks.  This could lead to early session weakness.  In addition, the slew of economic reports tomorrow may encourage some positioning evening late in the trading session. 


Treasury futures are expected to open mixed.  The December T-Bonds and T-Notes have felt downside pressure since Fed Chairman Bernanke mentioned higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy late last week.  Traders are going to have to clear his comments out of their minds in order for these markets to rally.  Otherwise it looks as if his comments have helped put in a short-term top.  The charts indicate the T-Bonds could break all the way back to 118’00 before attracting selling interest.


December Crude Oil could see more support today based on the stronger Euro and weaker Dollar.  Short-term supply and demand factors are still bearish, but speculative traders are beginning to price in the start of an economic recovery.


The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker.  The December Euro is expected to open higher despite a weaker German consumer confidence number.  The trend turned down in the December British Pound overnight when this currency pair broke through 1.5853.  This action also helped form a new swing top at 1.6117.  Buyers near the last swing bottom at 1.1065 are preventing the December Japanese Yen from changing the trend to down.  The current buying pressure could drive this market up to 1.1214 to 1.1250. 

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