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Economist has expected a gain about 15.5% in October

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 11/11/09


Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. The positive economic data from China were responsible for the strong JPY. Furthermore we analyze the NZD. Anyway, we wish you a good day.

Market review

The USD dropped to a 15 month low against its major counterparts as China published that the industrial production and retail sales rose. That increases the demand for higher yielding assets. The JPY climbed to 89.47 against the USD. Also the EUR fell versus the JPY and reached 134.10 after Japanese machine orders rose more than expected. The NZD weakened against its most major counterparts after the central bank Governor Alan Bollard said that the high gains for the NZD may slow an improvement in the current account deficit. The NZD traded at 0.7409 against the USD and the EUR traded at 2.0208 versus the NZD.

In China rose the factory output about 16.1% in October 2009 from a year earlier after its gain of about 13.9% in September 2009. Economist has expected a gain about 15.5% in October. The retail sales followed this positives news and climbed to 15.5%. The losses in the USD were limited against the JPY, because the loans in China dropped more than forecasted.


Since the middle of October, the GBP has been trading in a bullish trend against the NZD. Recently, the GBP weakened and touched its support at 2.2490 and it seems that the support was strong enough for a pull back. Furthermore it reached the bottom line from the Bollinger Band. During the last month, the prices could recover when they touched the bottom line. Also it seems that the MACD may cross the signal line from below in the near feature.


At the beginning of November, the NZD could recover from its bearish trend and has been trading in a bullish trend versus the JPY. Recently, the NZD reached its Pivot point at 66.67 and it seems that the resistance is strong enough to keep the prices under the level of 66.67. Also the Ma Oscillator could support a rebounding trend with a breakthrough by the signal line from the top.

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