EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.4900; stop below 1.4800

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 11/18/09

Comment: Tricky with yesterday’s pullback hinting that we might consolidate under this year’s high at 1.5064 for another week. However, moving averages and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ suggest a long position for a break to new highs later on.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4900; stop below 1.4800. Short term target 1.5000/1.5055, eventually more.

Comment: Yen crosses are drooping but not collapsing. This should gather pace, mirrored in all yen crosses, helping nudge one another down.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 133.00; stop above 134.45. Short term target 132.00, then more.

Comment: Consolidating neatly under this year’s high at 1.7044. It is just a matter of time before we take this out, hopefully before the end of this month. A weekly close above 1.7000 would kick it into play.

Strategy: Buy at 1.6820/1.6800; stop below 1.6700. First target 1.7000/1.7050, eventually more.

Comment: Consolidating surprisingly neatly at some of this year’s lowest levels (and lowest ever ones). Strangely bearish momentum has not increased though the USD is not oversold either. We still favour a sharp drop and a serious downside test of key support at 87.00 (and then 85.00) this week and through to December. Remember, thin markets will exacerbate moves.

Strategy: Sell at 89.15, adding to 89.50; stop well above 89.75. Short term target 88.25/88.00, eventually 87.25/87.00.