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EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.4975; stop below 1.4800

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 11/11/09



Comment: Consolidating neatly just under this year’s high at 1.5064 amid generalised US dollar weakness. The Euro is not overbought and bullish pressure has increased slightly, as should implied volatility.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4975; stop below 1.4800. Short term target this year’s high at 1.5064, then more.


Comment: A small ‘extension’ higher to 135.40 yesterday though still stuck in the middle of the large ‘triangle’ that has dominated for months. At the moment while very frustrating, there is no reason to question our slightly bearish outlook.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 134.55/135.00; stop above 135.75. Short term target 133.00, then 132.00.


Comment: Another close above 1.6665 as Cable bounces strongly ahead of the 9-day moving average. Expect consolidation at current levels today and probably another squeeze higher late this week.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6725; stop well below 1.6550. First target 1.6844, then this year’s high at 1.7044.


Comment: Very slow work but set to continue cautiously probing the downside. Trading under the moving averages and the descending lower edge of a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, yet refusing to succumb and drop as we still expect. Momentum is bearish and the USD is certainly not oversold. Time for generalised USD selling again this week.

Strategy: Sell at 89.75; stop above 90.40. Short term target 89.35, eventually 88.25.

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