EUR: Buy at 1.4500, adding to 1.4455; stop well below 1.4400

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 01/12/10

Comment: Basing against Fibonacci retracement support and the 200-day moving average at 1.4250, breaking to new recent highs, testing the 26-day moving average at 1.4541. Momentum has turned bullish and the Euro is not overbought. Good futures volume Friday on declining open interest suggest many have been wrong-footed by the latest little rally.

Strategy: Buy at 1.4500, adding to 1.4455; stop well below 1.4400. Short term target 1.4550, then 1.4800.

Comment: Yen crosses are just not where it’s at. This one is especially messy as we trade in the middle of last year’s broad sideways band.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 133.65; stop above 134.55. Short term target 133.00, then 131.50.

Comment: A potential, if crooked, ‘double bottom’ in the making as the USD loses a little ground against a raft of other currencies (except the Venezuelan Bolivar which was devalued by up to 50% Sunday).

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6095; stop below 1.5900. First target 1.6185 then 1.6240 and more later.

Comment: Retreating from ‘channel’ resistance and closing below the 9-day moving average. We continue to watch for more signs of topping, a drop below recent interim lows at 91.00 should turn momentum bearish.

Strategy: Sell at 92.20, adding to 92.50; stop above 93.25. Short term target 91.25/91.00, then 90.00.