EUR Gains Versus the USD
UFXBank Research from at 09/16/09
Daily Review 16/09/2009
US Dollar (USD) – The Dollar weakened versus the Euro and gained versus the Pound and Yen after Retail Sales jumped the most in three and a half years encouraging risk appetite. Retail Sales rose by 2.7% exceeding the 1.9% expected and -0.1% prior and the PPI gained by 1.7% beating 0.9% forecast and -0.9% prior. Fed's Chairman Bernanke said recession is probably over but unemployment is still at high levels. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.52% and 0.59% accordingly as stock rose following strong Retail Sales and Manufacturing Data .Crude oil gained by 2.25% closing at 70.41$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.77% closing at 1007.6$ an ounce. A lot of economic data expected today and could turn the markets around. CPI is expected higher at 0.3% versus 0% prior and the TIC Long term Purchases expected weaker with 65.3B versus 90.7B. Industrial Production is expected stronger with 0.7% versus 0.5% prior and Crude Inventories are expected to lower by only -2.6M versus -5.9M prior. Crude Inventories usually causes great volatility in Crude Prices.
Euro (EUR) – The Euro gained versus the Dollar after Retail Sales in the U.S jumped, suggesting inflation is rising and economic activity is strengthening. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to its highest in 3 years at 57.7 but fell short from 59.9 expected. Overall EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4560 and a high of 1.4685. Today, the European CPI is expected to remain at -0.2% while the Core CPI is expected weaker with 1.2% versus 1.3% prior.
EUR/USD - Last: 1.4670
Resistance 1.4725 1.475 1.4785
Support 1.46 1.456 1.4515
British Pound (GBP) –The Pound declined versus the Dollar as investors are anticipating the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment data today, fearing the weak data will weigh on the exchange rate. Consumer Price Index came out slightly better with 1.6% versus 1.4% expected but still lower than 1.8% prior. The RPI came out better showing a decline of only -1.3% better than -1.5% forecast and -1.4% prior. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6402 and a high of 1.6660. Today, early unemployment data will probably set the mood for the pound trading today. Unemployment is expected at the high level of 8% versus 7.8% prior and Claimant Count Change expected at 25K versus 24.9K prior.
GBP/USD - Last: 1.6490
Resistance 1.6525 1.66 1.6655
Support 1.64 1.6375 1.6325
Japanese Yen (JPY) - The Yen weakened versus the Dollar and the Euro again, as positive economic data in the U.S and Europe led to more risk appetite and sentiment that the recession is near its end. Overall USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.79 and a high of 91.64 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.78 and a high of 133.77. Today, Monetary Policy Statement will be released about the Interest Rate Decision, which is expected to remain at 0.1%. Bank of Japan will hold a press conference following the rate statement.
USD/JPY-Last: 90.90
Resistance 91.3 91.6 92
Support 90.75 90.5 90.2
Canadian Dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar gained versus the Dollar as Risk Appetite grew and Commodity prices rose on Dollar weakness and good economic data. Labor Productivity came out better showing 0% change versus 0.4% forecast. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0711 and with a high of 1.0870. Today, Manufacturing Sales are expected better with 2.4% versus 1.9% prior.
USD/CAD - Last: 1.072
Resistance 1.0807 1.0875 1.093
Support 1.0675 1.063 1.06
