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EUR: Possibly attempt longs at 1.4315; stop below 1.4200

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 01/08/10



Comment: Totally boring as we mark time ahead of today’s US employment figures while trying to form an interim base against Fibonacci retracement support and the 200-day moving average at 1.4250. Momentum is zero and futures positions are being re-built at a painfully slow pace.

Strategy: Possibly attempt longs at 1.4315; stop below 1.4200. Short term target 1.4450.


Comment: Trading at a new recent high but in the middle of the very broad band that dominated most of last year. Note that other Yen crosses are trading higher, other Asian currencies and so-called ‘commodity’ ones, at levels not seen since October 2008. Bullish momentum is not that strong here so watch for signs of instability today.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 133.65; stop above 134.25. Short term target 133.00, then 131.50.


Comment: Trading close to last year’s lower levels and going nowhere in a hurry.

Strategy: Possibly attempt very small longs at 1.5935; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6050 then 1.6240.


Comment: Baptism by fire for the new Japanese finance minister and his ill-conceived comments. These pushed the Yen to its weakest since late August. Against AUD, CAD, KRW and IDR it is at its weakest since October 2008. The Japanese currency is oversold, and the USD overbought here, so the move looks unsustainable especially as bullish momentum is half of what it was at the start of the week. Watch for signs of turning today, hopefully with an ‘evening star’ or even a ‘bearish engulfing’ candle on the daily or weekly charts.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 93.40; stop above 94.00. Short term target 91.25/91.00, then 90.00.

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