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EUR: Possibly attempt small shorts at 1.4710, adding to 1.4760

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 10/13/09



Comment: Better bid than we had expected as we consolidate above the 9-day moving average. We shall continue to pencil in another week or two of consolidation which would allow the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and trendline support to move closer to the Euro. Until the Euro manages a daily (and preferably weekly) close above 1.4800 we cannot rule out another test of support between 1.4600 and 1.4400.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 1.4790; stop/reverse above 1.4845. Cover between 1.4650 and 1.4600 and watch for signs of basing before going long.


Comment: Consolidating under the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, but note that some other Yen crosses are trading close to this year’s highest levels. Watch for slow signs of forming an interim top this week.

Strategy: Possibly attempt very small shorts at 132.95; stop above 133.50. Short term target 131.50/131.00.


Comment: Trapped below the bottom of a small ‘flag’ and above the first medium term Fibonacci retracement support. Expect more of the same as Cable is torn between sterling weakness and US dollar selling.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.5770; stop below 1.5700. First target 1.5925.


Comment: Stalling at the 26-day moving average, and the Lagging Span against September’s lows, with a small ‘spike high’. Bearish momentum has almost disappeared but then the US dollar is no longer oversold. Watch for slow signs of stalling over the next few days, somewhere between 90.50 and 91.50.

Strategy: Possibly attempt shorts at 89.90; stop above 90.55. Short term target 89.65, then 88.50.

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