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EUR: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.4785

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 11/03/09



Comment: Four consecutive alternating days thrashing around against Fibonacci and trendline support as we decide whether de-leverage will kick in. Allow for more of the same today and difficult work all week, with prices unlikely to hold quite so neatly between 1.4680 and 1.4860.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.4785; stop below 1.4650. Short term target 1.4855, maybe 1.4900.


Comment: Hopefully the widening Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will start to exert more downside pressure over the coming week. Note that momentum has yet to turn bearish and the Euro is currently not oversold against the Yen.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 133.30, adding to 134.00; stop above 134.65. Short term target 132.00, then 131.00, eventually another big slide lower still.


Comment: Still trapped below important resistance around 1.6665 and support from the growing Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and Fibonacci retracement. Allow for another cautious downside probe today. Short term watch support around 1.6200; medium term the 1.5900 area is key.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6345; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6600/1.6665.


Comment: Hovering rather unstably at the 26-day average at 90.17, under a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the 9-day moving average which has yet to turn bearish. The US dollar is still not oversold and momentum has yet to turn bearish so plenty of further downside pressure left over for this month. For today expect a slow drift towards 89.65, below which downside pressure should kick in properly. Expect repeated cautious downside testing of a series of key support levels between 89.00 and 87.00 this month, then lower to key 85.00 towards year-end.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 90.15, adding to 90.50; stop above 91.75. Short term target 89.65, then 88.50.

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