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EUR: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.3600

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 02/15/10



Comment: Friday’s new recent low at 1.3532 is a small ‘spike low’ and badly-shaped ‘hammer’. We continue to urge extreme caution and watch for signs of a dramatic reversal, so that we form a big ‘spike low’ probably this week. Note that the Euro is very oversold again and futures volume so far this month has been very strong.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.3600; stop below 1.3500. Short term target 1.3800/1.3850.


Comment: ‘Triangle’ consolidation above ‘channel’ support and still stuck under the 9-day moving average at 123.84. The Euro is marginally oversold and bearish momentum has eased considerably. Expect yet more hesitation in a small range around current levels today while allowing for a short squeeze towards 125.00.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 122.45; stop below 121.50. First target 124.15, maybe 125.00.


Comment: Friday’s large ‘doji’ as Cable alternates up and down days around the pivotal 1.5700 level, what had been the lower edge of the band that had held since July 2009. Wait and watch for much clearer signs of forming an interim low, hopefully this week.

Strategy: Possibly attempt very tiny longs at 1.5620; stop below 1.5500. Short term target 1.5750/1.5800.


Comment: Still holding above 50% Fibonacci support, inching higher from the bottom edge of a good-sized Ichimoku ‘cloud’, trading in relatively small daily ranges. Friday’s high at 90.43 is a small ‘spike high’ and prices are likely to try and hold below here and the 26-day moving average at 90.62.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 90.15; stop above 90.65. Short term target 89.30, then 88.80/88.55.

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