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FX Thoughts for the Day

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team from Kshitij Consultancy Service at 02/19/10


FX Thoughts for the day : 19-Feb-2010 - 1335 GMT

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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

USD-CHF @ 1.0853/58...Support at 1.08
R: 1.0886 / 1.0925-50 / 1.10
S: 1.08 / 1.0760-50 / 1.0720-00

Swiss is continuing to trade below the 21-Month-MA Resistance (currently at 1.0886). As mentioned earlier good Support is seen at 1.08 which we expect to hold in the US session today. However, a break below 1.08 might see 1.0750 on the downside. Overall the current upmove is expected to continue and we might see a rise towards 1.0925-50 which is a significant Resistance region seen on the upside. This Resistance region includes the Trendline Resistance at 1.0925 on the monthly candles and 1.0940 which is the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (12-Mar-09) to 1.0075 (16-Nov-09).
GBP-USD @ 1.5387/90...Bearish. Support next at 1.5282
R: 1.5460-91 / 1.5514 / 1.5627
S: 1.5345 / 1.5282

The Cable continued to slide and has thus far recorded a low of 1.5345. Further bearishness is likely to lead to a fall towards 1.5282 during the US session. This is the 50% retracement of the rise since Jan 2009. The Projected Max Low for the day has already been breached. We shall see if 1.5282 is where the pair finds Support today before closing for the week. The projected Max-high for the day is 1.5491.

The weekly candles suggest double top which could result in an ulitmate slide towards 1.49 in the long term.

AUD-USD @ 0.8910/14...Good chances of revisiting the 200-DMA Support
R: 0.8950 / 0.9025 / 0.9070
S: 0.8900-0.8880 / 0.8800-0.8780 / 0.8730

Aussie is trading in a very narrow range of 0.8880-8.8920. Though significant move on either side was not seen during the day, we might expect the pair to remain pressured on the downside and expect it to trade below 0.8950. As mentioned earlier, the failure to see a break above the Support-turned-Resistance 21-Week-MA (currently at 0.9025) has now increased the chances of revisiting the 200-DMA (currently at 0.8643) which is a very crucial Support level to be watched for on the downside.

The projected Max-High and Max-Low for the day is 0.8983 and 0.8855 respectively.

Happy Trading!

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