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FX Thoughts for the Day

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team from Kshitij Consultancy Service at 12/08/09


USD-CHF @ 1.0210/13...Mixed
R: 1.0200-30 / 1.0280-0300 / 1.0350
S: 1.0160 / 1.0110-00 / 1.0070-50

The Resistance region 1.0200-30 mentioned in the morning edition held very well during the as and Swiss is continuing to trade in the range of 1.0165-0220. Failure to see a sharp upmove above the 55-DMA (currently at 1.0174) which was broken a couple of days back is still keeping the pressure on the downside. However, the pair is still looking mixed with 50-50 chances to move on either side. As mentioned earlier Support is seen at 1.0160 a break below which might pull it down towards 1.0110-00 or even lower in the coming sessions. Note that the projected Max-low for the day is 1.0113

On the other hand if the Support at 1.0160 holds, a break above the Resistance region 1.0200-30 might take it up towards 1.0280-0300. The projected Max-High for the day is 1.0271.

GBP-USD @ 1.6306/09...Support at 1.6250-20
R: 1.6396-6408 / 1.6435 / 1.6520
S: 1.6281 / 1.6250-20

The Cable has fallen sharply during the day and is possibly moving towards testing the 1.6250 Support. Given the negative outlook of the credit rating firms on UK's fiscal debt, the pair may continue to be be bearish going forward in the next year as well. Technically, a break of 1.6250-20 finds next Support near 1.5896 (200-DMA) and next at 1.5580 (55-week MA). But unless broken, there is still that thin line of hope that the markets may not do anything silly ahead of the new year. This thin line of hope may be shattered on a break below 1.6200.

 AUD-USD @ 0.9108/11...Might test the Support at 13-Week MA (0.9027)
R: 0.9165-85 / 0.9220 / 0.9280-0.9300
S: 0.9095 / 0.9027 / 0.8980

Aussie tested the Support at the 55-DMA (currently at 0.9095) and saw a rise towards 0.9146 during the day. However, failing to sustain on its upmove, it has fallen once again and is now trading just above 0.9100. It is continuing to remain pressured on the downside and as mentioned in the morning we might see a test of the 13-Week MA (currently at 0.9027) which is the next significant Support level to be watched for on the downside below the 55-DMA. A strong break below this 13-Week MA might increase the chances of a further dip towards 0.8900 or even lower.

Any significant upmove is not looking likely now as the pair is not showing much upside momentum and we expect the Resistance at 0.9220 to in the US session today. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 0.9232.

Happy Trading!

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