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FX Thoughts for the Day

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team from Kshitij Consultancy Service at 12/10/09


USD-CHF @ 1.0253/56...Sell on rally
R: 1.0300 / 1.0330-50 / 1.0370
S: 1.0220-00 / 1.0175-50 / 1.0120

Swiss once again failed in its attempt made during the day to break above 1.0300. However, it is continuing to retain the range 1.0250-0300 in which it has been trading for some time. On the upside, a break above 1.0300 might take it up towards 1.0330-50. On the downside a strong break below the Resistance-turned-Support in 1.0220-00 region might pull it down towards 1.0175-50 in the US session today.

We expect the overall downtrend to continue as the pair is looking like losing its upside momentum. Though there are still 50-50 chances of further rise towards 1.0330-50, we would like to trade with the trend. Therefore we would sell on rally and cancel the buy order placed in the morning commentary.

Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 10K at 1.0320, SL 1.0410, TP Open

GBP-USD @ 1.6305/09...Broad range for the rest of year
R: 1.6319-25 / 1.6393-6412 / 1.6440-63
S: 1.6263-58 / 1.6150-24 / 1.6079

Cable has risen once again. Till it trades above 1.6220, there could be chances of a structured rise towards 1.6450 over today and tomorrow on a break above immediate Resistance at 1.6326. This also when clubbed with the view emerging from the weekly candle chart suggests that there might be a while before the pair decides to break below 1.6150. But if seen the next target would possibly be the 200-DMA at 1.5917.

Overall the pair is likely to trade between 1.6150-1.6650 for the rest of the year and early Jan 2010. And the view shall be the same unless a comprehensive break of the range is seen for the rest of the year. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6412 and 1.6124 respectively.

 AUD-USD @ 0.9162/65...Might rise further
R: 0.9200 / 0.9280/ 0.9330
S: 0.9120-00 / 0.9030 / 0.8980

The Support at 0.9100 mentioned earlier held during the day and Aussie is continuing to trade higher. We may expect a test of the Resistance at 0.9200. As mentioned earlier a break above 0.9200 might see a rise towards 0.9280-0.9300. As the pair is looking strong on its upmove, we expect the Support at 0.9100 to hold in the US session also. However, a break below 0.9100 might pull it down towards 0.9020-00. Overall we expect it to trade in the range of 0.9000-0.9300 for some time.

Happy Trading!

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