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FX Thoughts for the Day

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team from Kshitij Consultancy Service at 12/17/09


USD-CHF @ 1.0486/88...Trading in the Resistance region (1.0470-90)
R: 1.0470-90 / 1.0530 / 1.0570
S: 1.0405 / 1.0380-60 / 1.0290

After trading in a narrow range of 1.0450-70 initially during the day, Swiss has risen and broke above the Crucial Resistance in 1.0470-90 region. However, it has now fallen slightly from the high of 1.0508 and is now trading in the Resistance region (1.0470-90). As mentioned earlier, a higher weekly close above this Resistance in 1.0470-90 region might signal a trend reversal. A strong break above 1.0490 might take it up towards 1.0535-50 or even higher in the coming days. Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now as the pair is continuing to remain strong in its upmove. However, if the Resistance region (1.0470-90) holds in the US session today and the pair gains downside momentum, we might see a downmove towards the Support in 1.0380-60 region. We expect this Support in 1.0380-60 region to hold during the day as much strength is not seen on the downside move.
GBP-USD @ 1.6121/25...Watch 1.6229
R: 1.6229 / 1.6270 / 1.6295
S: 1.6049 / 1.5977

Cable has fallen towards the trendline Support at 1.6080 on the daily candles. The trendline formed by joining the lows of 27 Nov (1.6271), 9 Dec (1.6167). This could possibly be the end of today's fall and the pair may now take some breath after having recorded an amplitude of over 250 pips. We shall have to see if the pair manages to close above 1.6229 which is being attempted over the last several days. A close below 1.6229 will make the pair bearish for the 200-DMA at 1.5977.

 AUD-USD @ 0.8888/91...Support at 0.8848/0.8820
R: 0.8920 / 0.8970 / 0.9050
S: 0.8848 / 0.8820 / 0.8760

After rising and recording a high of 0.8920, Aussie has fallen once again and is now trading below 0.8900. Our view continue to remain the same on the pair. The next significant Support levels to watch for are 0.8848 (100-DMA) and 0.8820 (Trendline Support on the weekly chart). If it continues to trade below 0.8900 we might see a downmove towards these Support levels in the US session today. On the upside Resistance is seen at 0.8970 which we may expect to hold during the day as the pair is looking strong in its current downmove. However, a strong break above 0.8970 might increase the chances of a further rise towards 0.9050

Happy Trading!

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