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GBP Declines Versus the Dollar

UFXBank Research from UFX Bank at 12/02/09


Daily Review 1/12/2009

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar weakened slightly versus the other majors as Dubai's crisis seem to have been contained. Chicago PMI came out stronger with 56.1 versus 53.4 expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.29% and 0.34% after trading in the red zone for most of the trading session. Crude gained by 1.81% closing at 77.43$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) gained by 0.59% change closing at 1181.1$ an ounce. Today, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected lower with 54.8 versus 55.7 prior and Pending Home Sales are expected with -0.4% change versus 6.1% prior.

EURO (EUR) –The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar as risk appetite resumed following UAE's pledge to back Dubai's banks. CPI Flash Estimate came out 0.6% better than 0.5% expected. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4971 and with a high of 1.5084. Today, Euro Zone Unemployment Rate is expected worse with 9.8% versus 9.7% prior. German Unemployment Change is expected worse with 5K versus -26K prior.

EUR/USD - Last: 1.5010

Resistance 1.5030 1.5070 1.5085
Support 1.4975 1.495 1.492

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound declined versus the Dollar after Net Lending to Individuals came out only 0.3B versus 0.8B expected, reducing expectations for a decrease in the QE program. Mortgage Approvals came out weaker with 57K versus 59K expected. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6380 and a high of 1.6593. Today, Manufacturing PMI is expected stronger with 54.1 versus 53.7 prior. MPC Member Posen will speak in London.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.6440

Resistance 1.6505 1.6590 1.6650
Support 1.6375 1.6275 1.625

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen gained slightly versus the Dollar after BOJ Governor Shirakawa said he will meet Prime Minister Hatoyama to discuss the Yen and the monetary policy following recent Yen movement. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.86 and a high of 86.85 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 128.97 and a high of 130.82. Today, Monetary Base is expected with 4.7% versus 4.4% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 86.30

Resistance 86.85 87.5 88
Support 85.75 85.25 84.80

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar strengthened versus the Dollar after UAE pledged to stand behind Dubai's banks lifting risk appetite and demand for higher yielding assets. GDP came out 0.4% as expected for the first quarterly gain in a year. RMPI came out weaker with 2.5% versus 3.1% forecast. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0533 and a high of 1.0613. No economic data expected today.

CAD/USD - Last: 1.0555

Resistance 1.0615 1.0645 1.069
Support 1.0535 1.0505 1.045

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