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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 10/11/09


Comex Gold (GC)

Gold broke prior high of 1033.9 last week and made new record high of 1062.7 before retreating mildly. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral and some retreat might be seen first. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1011.0 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1062.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1025.8 from 952.5 at 1080 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 984.4 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.

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