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More USD strength is likely but I still question the overall trend

Pierre Charlebois from Trading Metro at 10/26/09


This may be a USD bottom but I am still using caution until we see more evidence a turn has started in earnest.

USD Index - The trend is still intact. 75.00 may prove to be the psychological barrier however a true break has not yet occurred.


EUR/USD - I am still cautious due to the nature of the pull back from the top of 1.5059. The shape is not what I would like to see from an Elliott Wave view. However I have been wrong before about initial wave structures and I still see the upside as limited. So I am about 50/50 on this pair as to whether the top is in place.

GBP/USD - The move down from the the top on this pair is clearly impulsive. However the structure preceding it could be evidence that it is a wave C of a correction. What I would really like to see before calling a top is a 3 Wave pull-back and further drop to new lows. Whereas a new high would once again put 1.70 back in the picture.

USD/JPY - Reaching overbought at this point. Direction unclear to me.

USD/CHF - Clearly the downside is limited. Whether the bottom is truly in place or not remains to be seen.

AUD/USD - As with many pairs the upside appears limited but not guaranteed.

NZD/USD - As with the AUD/USD, a correction is overdue. Where is the top?

USD/CAD - Current trend-line could define the trend

EUR/JPY - In the bigger view I think this should top out and drop again.

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