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No News Day Weakens Dollar

James Hyerczyk from ForexHound.com at 12/29/09


The U.S. Dollar traded most of the day in a range and finished lower.  With the lack of major economic news this week, global investors were forced to worry about another round of U.S. debt.  Throughout the week, the Treasury is going to add to its already massive debt pile by another $118 billion. 


Aside from the debt worries, trading is thin and lifeless ahead of the New Year holiday. One can only speculate as to where the Forex markets want to go, but without major player participation, large movements are expected to be muted throughout the week. Technical factors could drive the Dollar lower because of overbought conditions.  Chart patterns indicate there is room to the downside before the Dollar hits meaningful support.


The EUR USD is up slightly near the close.  A new main bottom was formed at 1.4217.  The chart pattern suggests that upside momentum may be building for a possible run at 1.4680 over the near-term.  Concerns over U.S. debt issues are encouraging traders to lighten up their short Euro positions.


The GBP USD is appears to be building a small support base.  The lack of fresh negative news has led to the absence of sellers.  Watch for a short-covering rally if 1.6022 is penetrated.


The USD JPY traded inside of a tight range but managed to eke out a small gain. Upside momentum is slowing which makes this market vulnerable to a short-term correction.  The daily chart pattern suggests a possible pull-back to 90.77 over the near-term. Investors seem content with holding this market in a range until after the first of the year when fresh economic data will be made available.


The old top at 1.0337 appears to be forming short-term support for the USD CHF.  If this support fails, this market could accelerate to the downside.  The current pattern suggests a break to 1.0212 is possible over the near-term.


The USD CAD closed under a key retracement level at 1.0459. This action triggered an acceleration to the downside. The next downside target is 1.0405. A break through this level will reaffirm the downtrend.


The AUD USD rallied off the 50% price at .8780.  The current strength has helped form a main bottom at .8734.  The short-term charts suggest a rally back to .8964 is likely over the near-term before new selling pressure surfaces. Stronger demand for higher yields helped to support the Aussie.


Short-covering and demand for higher yielding assets is helped to push the NZD USD higher.  Thin trading conditions also helped underpin the market. A new main range has formed between .7318 - .6970.  Upside momentum could drive this market to .7144 before selling pressure resumes. Firm global equity markets and weak Treasuries are stirring up demand for higher yielding assets.

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