Oil prices stop falling

Anna Lachowiecka from X-Trade Brokers, XTB at 12/16/09

Oil prices increased after FED’s publication about industrial production in the U.S., which raised by 0.8% against the forecasted 0.5% increase. This can be a sign, that demand for oil might increase soon. Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute published a report about oil supplies, which keep consequently increasing and reached the highest level since April of 2009. Today, the Department of Energy will publish a similar report.

The technical analysis shows us the end of the consolidation phase with the price falling below the $71/barrel level. The price then turned back up and now it fluctuates around $73.40 . The next supports are placed at the levels of $70 and $69.30, where the long term trend line is located. The next resistance are at the levels of $75.11 and $80.20 .

The OPEC meeting, which takes place on December the 22nd will have significant influence on oil prices. The main topics on the agenda are next year’s extraction plans. OPEC’s main point of interest is keeping oil price near $80/barrel , what will be a serious challenge considering rising supplies.

Signals about reductions in oil extraction will become a serious pressure on prices and will most likely cause it’s appreciation. If, on the other hand, OPEC chooses a less strict policy, oil prices will probably fall because of rising supplies. Although the second scenario seems to be less probable.