Silver Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 10/28/09

Comex Silver (SI)

Silver' fall from 18.175 extends further to as low as 16.40 so far the the strong break of 16.785 support indicates that whole rise from 12.435 has already completed. Intraday bias is now on the downside and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 12.435 to 18.175 at 15.98 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 14.62 next. On the upside, above 16.77 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidation. However, above 18.175 is needed to indicate resumption of rally. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside in near term.

In the bigger picture, rise from 12.435 should have completed at 18.175 with bearish divergence conditions daily MACD and RSI. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 16.44) will pave the way to have a test on lower trend line support (now at 13.37). However, note that at this moment, there is no clear indication of completion of the whole rise from 8.4 yet. Though, as such rise is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08, upside should be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone even incase of another rise. On the downside, break of 15.76 support will be the first sign of topping. Further break of 12.435 will confirm that rise from 8.4 is finished.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart