Silver Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 12/23/09

Comex Silver (SI)

Silver's break of 16.90 support argues that fall from 19.50 is resuming and intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for the moment. Further fall should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 19.50 to 16.90 from 17.81 at 16.20, which is close to 16.12 support. ON the upside, though, above 17.52 minor resistance will suggest that consolidations from 16.90 is still in progress and will delay the bearish view. Nevertheless, in case of another rise, upside is still expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 19.50 to 16.90 at 18.50 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, rise from 12.435 should have completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this case and should target lower trend line support at 13.88 level. This will also be the another signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too. Sustained break of the lower trend line support will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low.

Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours and Daily Charts