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The CAD fell by the most in almost three months

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 01/21/10


Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Today, we will report about the CAD and the USD which gained against all of it major counterparts. Furthermore we have technical analyses from the PLN. We wish you like always, much luck in trading today.

Market review

The CAD fell by the most in almost three months as oil dropped, the biggest nation’s resource and a report showed that inflation climbed less in December 2009 than expected. That’s reducing the chance that the central bank will raise the interest rates before the second half of 2010. The CAD reached 1.0465 against the USD and lost 1.5%. The actual inflation target is 2% in Canada. The CAD weakened against 11 of its 16 major counterparts. The USD gained versus all of its 16 most traded counterparts. The EUR fell against the USD and reached 1.4089. The JPY dropped to 91.38 versus the USD.

The USD climbed from a six week low against the GBP after the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that a pickup in inflation probably won`t last and voiced concern over the record budget deficit. A government report yesterday showed that the U.K inflation rate had its biggest increase on record in December because of higher oil prices and the expiry of a sales tax reduction. The GBP dropped to 1.6267 versus the USD and reached 0.8691 against the EUR.


Since the beginning of January 2010, the EUR is trading in a bearish trend channel against the PLN. During that time, whenever the currency pair reached the upper line of the trend channel, the prices rebounded. Yesterday, the EUR touched the upper line again and couldn’t cross it. Now it seems that the EUR will continue its bearish trend. Also the high of the RSI may indicate a decreasing trend in the next few days.


As you can see, the USD has been trading in downward movement versus the PLN since December 2009. Recently, the currency pair increased from its low level and could start bullish phase. Currently, the prices reach the resistance level around 2.8740 and it seems that the resistance is strong enough for the USD like two weeks before. Also a crossing Momentum through the signal line from the top could support a pull back.

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