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The tertiary index increased 0.5 percent from a month earlier

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 12/16/09


Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. After we saw a bearish EUR/USD rally yesterday we are looking forward to the Federal Reserve rate decision today. However, we wish you a successful trading day.

Market review

The USD rose as much as 1 percent near to a two-month high versus the EUR on speculation that the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus measures amid signs that the U.S. economic recovers. While ECB council member Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB don’t need to raise its key interest rates if prices stay muted. The EUR/USD fell to 1.4504 at its lowest level from 1.4656 at its opening. The USD also gained against the JPY and climbed to a one-week high on concern U.S. reports may show today that the housing starts rebounded and consumer prices strengthened. In the early Tokyo trading hours the GBP/JPY fell to 145.39 as Japan’s demand for services rebounded in October and signaling that a better job market is supporting the consumer spending. The tertiary index increased 0.5 percent from a month earlier, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today.

The AUD traded lower after the central bank deputy Governor Ric Battellino said monetary policy is back in “the normal range”, damping expectations for higher interest rates. Moreover Australia’s gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent, less than economists expected.


The currency pair has been trading close to a bullish trend-line since the end of November. But the NZD failed to cross the resistance at 64.93 for the third time now and in considering of the contracting Bollinger Bands, which may indicate an upcoming breakout, as well as the declining Momentum we have to allow a trendreversal. Nevertheless if the NZD could cross the resistance it may boost the bulls.


Yesterday, the EUR/CZK jumped to its highest level this month and crossed both pivot resistance points. At the end of November we saw a strong rebounding CZK followed by a related figure. Today we noticed a declining Momentum indicator at the same high level and the RSI shows a similarly overbought market as in November. All these facts may indicate a bearish trendreversal.

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