U.S. Dollar Strengthening Against Higher−Yielding Currencies
James Hyerczyk from ForexHound.com at 10/22/09
The EUR USD is trading on both sides of $1.50 in an effort to establish support above this area. Traders seem a little nervous about chasing this market through $1.50. Investors fear the European Central Bank may start a round of “verbal interventions” which could drive aggressive bullish traders away from the long side of this currency.
Following an initial rally last night, the GBP USD is now feeling downside pressure. This could be because of overbought conditions. Currently this market is in a position to post a daily reversal top. The charts indicate substantial room to the downside with 1.6373 to 1.6530 the next likely target zone.
Lower crude oil and stock market is helping to rally the USD CAD. Earlier in the week, the Bank of Canada expressed concerns about the value of the Canadian Dollar and its negative effect on the economy. The main trend is up on the daily chart. The current chart pattern suggests a move to 1.0598 to 1.0691 is likely over the short-run.
Both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are feeling selling pressure on speculation that China will put limits on its stimulus spending. This could adversely affect exports for both of these countries. Earlier in the week the Aussie felt pressure because of overbought conditions and news from the Reserve Bank of Australia that a 50 basis point rate hike was not in the offing. Look for the start of a short-term break but not necessarily a change in trend.
The NZD USD could feel pressure today for the same reason. Losses have been limited, however, because of the possibility of an interest rate hike sooner than expected. Look for the start of a correction but not necessarily a change in trend should this market begin to weaken.