Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 01/12/10

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's break of 81.72 minor support suggests that a short term top is in place at 83.95. Intraday bias is flipped to the downside and some corrections could now be seen, probably to 38.2% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 78.08. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 74.46 and bring rally resumption. Above 83.95 will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again.

In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours and Daily Chart