Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 11/05/09

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's break of 80.46 minor resistance argues that consolidation from 82.00 might have completed at 76.55 already. Intraday bias will now stay on the upside for a retest of 82.00 first. Break will bring medium term rise resumption towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. On the downside, though, below 76.55 will revive the case that rise from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 71.52 next.

In the bigger picture, choppy price actions from 82.00 argues that it's possibly just consolidation to rally from 65.05 only. A break above 82.00 will indicate that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and might extend further towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Nevertheless, we'd expect bearish divergence condition to continue in daily MACD and thus, crude oil should continue to lose momentum even in case of another rise. Rebound from 33.2 is still expected to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), On the downside, though, break of trend line support (now at 70.50) will be the first indication that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will target 58.32 support for confirmation.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart