Currency Technical Report
George Antonakos from FXGreece at 01/08/10
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1,4480/ 1,4505/ 1.4550/ 1.4580-90/ 1.4630/ 1.4680
Support : 1,4430/ 1.4400/ 1.4350/ 1.4300
Comment : Euro seems to have formed a base, after 1.4200 lows, after the sharp moves in the end of 2009. The market’s sentiment is not clear, even if there is some risk appetite, as we can see from the rise in commodities and stock markets.
Technically, the upward reaction is considered corrective and is should be completed at 1,4600 or 1.4700, in order to see a decline resumption to previous lows or even lower. The higher range for the current upward move, according to this scenario, should be at 1.4800, where 61.8% retracement level will be completed.
A first sign of bullish strength will be an upward break of 1.4470-80 and the confirmation of 1.4450 as support. First target in that case, will be at 1,4570-90, followed by 1,4680-90 (38.2% and 50% retracement levels, accordingly).
A weak move towards 1.4500 and a decline below 1.4400, would indicate that the sideways formation is likely to be resumed and a move back to 1,4350 and 1,4300 is possible.
*STRATEGY: We will try sell orders at current levels (1.4470), adding more at 1,4500-10, as the upper Bollinger is being reached in the hourly chart. We will set stops above 1,4535 and targets at 1.4400. We keep positions small as its is the beginning of the year and liquidity is still low..
In case of a rise resumption we will try again sell orders at 1,4570-80, with stops above 1.4640 and target at 1.4480.
We should be cautious at buy orders without a previous retracement. We will use the first reach of the lower Bollinger in the hourly chart…
*The above mentioned strategy refers to orders that we may follow for personal accounts, depending on the market analysis and the potential reach of resistance and support levels. We do not encourage buy or sell orders, as its effective use is based on correct risk management and the ability of position readjustment depending on current conditions...
