Dollar trying to break−out. Will this be the week?

Pierre Charlebois from Trading Metro at 11/09/09

Long term trends by their nature don't turn easily. The last two weeks we have seen counter trends and we have reversed to about half of the original gain by the USD. There are many arguments to be made for both a weak and/or a strong Dollar going forward.

What I do know is that this trend has lasted surprisingly long and should at least correct in a reasonable period of time.

USD Index- The bottom is not assured yet and the risk to both directions is about equal. What I would say is a new low will likely be reversed quite rapidly and any break above 77.00 should accelerate.

EUR/USD - Below 1.4626 pretty much defines the trend. New highs would likely reverse in short order.

GBP/USD - A double top is a real possibility

USD/JPY - I have no directional bias

USD/CHF - A double bottom at 1.00 is not out of the question. On the upside look for a break above the wick at 1.0337

AUD/USD - Another long term trend that just won't fall

NZD/USD - This pair shows some evidence of having topped

USD/CAD - Will the break-out get legs and continue?

EUR/JPY - Tough call but I still think a new top is possible