EUR: Attempt longs at 1.5095; stop below 1.4950

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 12/03/09

Comment: Same as it was yesterday: consolidating neatly, looking more comfortable above the psychological 1.5000 area. It is not overbought though trading very close to the all-time high on the ECB’s effective exchange rate. If not this week then this month we favour a break to a new high for this year, accentuated by thin markets.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.5095; stop below 1.4950. Short term target 1.5145, then more.

Comment: Yen crosses have bounced by a lot more than we had allowed for as we move back inside the large ‘triangle’ that has dominated so far this year. So frustrating.

Strategy: Do as little as possible.

Comment: Working in a sort of ‘flag’ since November, a continuation pattern that should lead to a re-test of this year’s high at 1.7044. It is not overbought though bullish momentum is not as strong as some might like.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6595; stop below 1.6350. First target 1.6800/1.6875 then 1.7040.

Comment: Rallying beyond what we had allowed for and while all aspects of this chart suggests a short position, the problem being where to place a stop. We continue to see current levels as a selling opportunity for a re-test of the pivotal 85.00 area later this month.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 87.80; stop above 88.65. Short term target 86.50, then 86.00.