EUR: Attempt longs at 1.4930; stop below 1.4800

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 11/23/09

Comment: Incredibly neat consolidation whatever US policymakers have to say about their currency. It looks as though we are setting up for a re-test this year’s high at 1.5064, bullish pressure increasing fractionally if we hold above the 26-day moving average at 1.4842. Rising trendline and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should also provide support and suggest a long position for a break to new highs later on.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4930; stop below 1.4800. Short term target 1.5000/1.5055, eventually more.

Comment: Terribly boring as we find ourselves in the same position we have faced so many times since April. Maybe complacency will eventually cause Yen crosses to move lower as we still expect.

Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt shorts at 132.55, adding to 133.70; stop above 134.05. Short term target 132.00/131.75, then more.

Comment: Pulling back from recent highs but this gives us little idea of how low this dip might be.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.6535; stop below 1.6400. First target 1.6700, then 1.6800.

Comment: Painfully slow but nevertheless we continue to favour a serious downside test of key support at 87.00 (and then 85.00) this week and through to December.

Strategy: Sell at 88.80, adding to 89.50; stop well above 89.75. Short term target 88.25/88.00, eventually 87.25/87.00.