EUR: Buy at 1.4835; stop below 1.4750

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 12/08/09

Comment: Hovering below ‘channel’ support, trying to base against the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and retracement support, and yesterday’s ‘doji’ adds weight to this view. Should we hold above 1.4800 today expect a squeeze to 1.4900, and then probably more.

Strategy: Buy at 1.4835; stop below 1.4750. Short term target 1.4900, then 1.5000.

Comment: Reversing all of Friday’s rally, and 38% of the rally from November’s low at 126.95, stopped at the top of a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’. This week prices will probably try and hold above interim support around 131.00 to 132.00.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 132.15 but only if prepared to add to 133.50; stop above 134.55. Cover ahead of 131.00.

Comment: Yesterday’s ‘spike low’ against the bottom of the ‘flag’ and the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ balances out Friday’s ‘spike high’. These are signs of a market looking for direction while carefully balanced at current levels. Good futures volume last week suggests many are closing out positions for this year.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6390; stop below 1.6250. First target 1.6650 then 1.6800.

Comment: Reversing over 61% of Friday’s rally, stopped by a rather thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and helped by a Lagging Span which topped at the 30th October’s large dark candle. We have hopefully formed a new interim high, at least fir this week, and shall probably drop towards the 88.00 area where prices will try and hold this week and next.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 89.00 but only if prepared to add to 90.00; stop above 90.90. Short term target 88.50, then 88.00.