EUR: Buy at 1.4895, adding to 1.4845; stop below 1.4745

Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 10/14/09

Comment: Just one of many currencies hitting a new high for the year against the Euro. Yesterday’s close above 1.4800 suggests we have started the next leg of a long term rally; a weekly close above here would confirm. Bullish momentum is good though the Euro is overbought – but does anyone care?

Strategy: Buy at 1.4895, adding to 1.4845; stop below 1.4745. Add to longs on a break above 1.4915 and again above 1.4975 for 1.5000/1.5085 short term and then more.

Comment: Back under the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and just holding above the 26-day moving average. Continue to watch for slow signs of forming an interim top this week.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 132.55; stop above 133.55. Short term target 131.50/131.00.

Comment: Bouncing from first medium term Fibonacci retracement support (38%), dragged by other currencies that are hitting new highs for this year against the US dollar. Expect more random consolidation around 1.5850, the exact mid-point for Cable since 1982.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.5970; stop below 1.5700. First target 1.6025/1.6075, maybe 1.6225.

Comment: Retreating from the 26-day moving average and a re-drawn trendline. Bearish momentum is fractionally stronger and the US dollar is no longer oversold. While below 90.50 downside pressure should increase.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 89.00, adding to 90.00; stop above 90.55. Short term target 88.25/88.00.