INTC/JPM On Deck...
Jack Steiman from SwingTradeOnline.com at 01/15/10
The market has continued to move higher day after day in a slow grinding manner that is never on the nerves. As we move higher the moves up get smaller and smaller but they're still up moves. the question now becomes, can the market continue this grind higher or will it get stopped cold! The answer is likely in the earnings season that is truly upon us now. Intel (INTC) is huge as it is a major economic indicator as its chips are in everything. The news just came out and they blew away the numbers and it is somewhat higher after hours. Up 2-3% on top of nice gains during the day. It's on breakout if this holds and that can only be good for the markets.
One down and one to go as we get JP Morgan Chase (JPM) before the opening tomorrow morning. This too is an important report as it's considered one of the very best financials and thus a good report only helps the situation in that arena. If it is good, the bears are going to have a very difficult time taking things lower in the near term although understand a correction can take place at any moment. It's all about earnings folks and thus far, if INTC is any indication, things will be better than expected for this quarter and that means the market is likely to maintain its overall up trend for some time.
The market began the day mostly flat and then spent the rest of the day grinding its teeth higher in anticipation of INTC and JPM. You could see the bulls and bears lying low as neither side wanted to get too aggressive in front of such important reports. Lots of fear and who could blame either side. Good reports and the bears know things won't be easy. Bad reports and the bulls know they could get torched short term. The Nasdaq led a bit all day but that's understandable as INC had a very nice chart starting the day and thus the bears weren't going to attack that area of the market if they were going to try and attack at all. We closed a bit off the highs and overall the gains were small but gains nonetheless. The up trend remains firmly entrenched. Again, always pullbacks but for now we can only stick with the trend in place but clearly we don't want to overdo it as earnings on any given night can turn things sour for a day or so.
The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index or the ETF for the dollar continues to break down negating the original pattern in place that had breakout potential above 23.20. It has lost the 50-day exponential moving average and the inverse bullish pattern. No appetite it seems for United States currency. Makes you wonder about our future but sticking with the market theme, it can't be bad news for the market that the dollar sadly is falling almost on a daily basis.
It is very interesting these past few weeks as we are seeing the old "dead" guard finally come back to life. The old group that led in the 90's, Oracle (ORCL), EMC Corp, (EMC), Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO), and are all seeing some very nice gains these days. Many will argue that when this group gets going, it must mean that the bull market is nearing its conclusion. I don't agree with that at all. In fact, seeing an appetite for the old guard gets me to thinking that this market may have more legs than anyone thinks possible. These stocks are just breaking out of long term bases. Some of them multi year bases. That's more bullish than bearish for sure. INTC and ORCL and add in MSFT are in that category right now with CSCO close at hand. Good action for sure.
Look folks, it's sexy to say the party has to be over here. The move is long in the tooth and you can make a good argument that we're just grinding along and that's not the best action. There's truth to that but the reality is we keep grinding higher on good earnings and if that continues on the earnings front, sustainable downside action won't be easy for the bears. I still can't recommend taking on short plays at this point in time. Staying with the trend.
