New Years Wrap Up
UFXBank Research from UFX Bank at 12/31/09
Daily Review 31/12/2009
USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar ended mixed versus the majors after better than expected Chicago PMI showed Companies in the U.S. expanded more than anticipated in December causing the Euro and Pound to gain back versus the Dollar. The Chicago PMI rose to 60, the highest level since January 2006. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.13% and 0.03% respectively. Crude oil gained by 0.5% closing at 79.28$ a barrel after Crude Inventories showed a drop of 1.5M barrels leading prices higher. Gold (XAU) declined by -0.45% closing at 1093.70$ an ounce. Today, Unemployment Claims are expected at 460K vs. 452K prior.
EURO (EUR) – The Euro remained almost unchanged versus the Dollar after it was unable to remain below the 1.43 level. M3 Money Supply came out worse than expected at -0.2% vs. 0.4% forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4273 and a high of 1.4361. The Euro is still on a downtrend versus the Dollar but not being able to sustain below the 1.43 level gives great opportunities for short-term trades upwards. German and Italian banks are already on their New Year's holiday and light volume and volatility are expected.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4367
Resistance 1.4413 1.4458
Support 1.4325 1.4273
British Pound (GBP) –The Pound rose versus the Dollar and strengthened its biggest gain in more than two months against the Euro as it reached oversold conditions sending it to an 11-week low. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5833 and with a high of 1.6095. The main trend is still downwards and only a break above 1.6250 will suggest the trend has changed. Today, Nationwide HPI is expected at 0.4% vs. 0.5% prior.
GBP/USD - Last: 1.6065
Resistance 1.6095
Support 1.6022 1.5925 1.5845
Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Dollar climbed to a three-month high versus the Yen on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to withdrawing stimulus measures as the economy recovers, pushing bond yields higher. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 91.98 and with a high of 92.67. The momentum on the USD/JPY is upwards and as long as it remains above the 92 level it is bullish. No economic data expected today.
JPY/USD-Last: 92.33
Resistance 92.60 92.77
Support 92.0 91.8 91.50
Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar declined the most in 3 weeks against its U.S. counterpart after Chicago PMI showed more signs of growth in the U.S causing investors to exit their bets against the Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0441 and with a high of 1.0578. The USD/CAD has completed the hammer reversal pattern with a strong green confirming candlestick on the daily chart therefore it is likely to continue going up. No economic data expected today.
USD/CAD - Last: 1.0516
Resistance 1.0560 1.0577
Support 1.0505 1.0455 1.0418
