The London − based research group said in a statement today

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 02/01/10

Good morning and welcome to our first Daily FX Report in February 2010. A new week, though the same cold weather in Hamburg: up to 50cm fresh snow during the weekend. Fortunately the FOREX market isn’t frozen yet and we wish you a successful trading week.

The USD rose versus the GBP to a three-week high on concern a U.S. report may show today that the national manufacturing expanded for a sixth month. The U.K. house prices increased for a sixth month by 0.1 %, the London-based research group said in a statement today. During the first trading hours the JPY climbed against 15 of its 16 major counterparts as falling Asian equities damped demand for emerging-market, though especially the EUR/JPY slid to a ninemonth low on concern Greece’s budget problems will spread. Also the EUR/USD traded near a seven-month low. The CHF rebounded against the EUR last Friday from a multi-month high on speculation that the Swiss National Bank sold out its currency.

The AUD/USD declined to its lowest level in more than a month caused on speculation that the worldwide economic recovery may slow down and thus the RBA could interrupt its policy of increasing interest-rates. Following a slower pace in commodity export also the NZD fell near to its lowest level since 23rd of December.

After the USD/JPY knew only the way up during the last quarter of 2009 the trend reversed in January. Last week the USD fell near its first pivot support point around 89.30. It seems that the bearish trend will be confirmed for the second time, as the USD hit the upper trend-line and recovered again. The week began also below its pivot point just like the last weeks. The falling MA Oscillator may enforce the bears as well.

Following a two-month streak of bearish trading the currency pair recovered and climbed to the second Fibonacci Fan. Notwithstanding the RSI indicates an oversold market it should boost the bulls if the second Fan would be crossed. Otherwise we may allow for a further reversal near to its low at 1.5418. In this case it remains to be seen if the EUR/AUD could reverify its new basement.