The USD/JPY has been moving less the resistance level at 90.60

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 12/21/09

Good morning from snowy and frosty Hamburg. Today we will have the EUR and the USD in Focus while we expect further U.S. data this week, which could be important for the related currencies. However, have a nice start in the week.

The USD may extend its biggest weekly gain since June against its major counterparts before reports this week may show further positive data from the U.S. According to a survey, U.S. Household purchases may climb 0.7 percent for a second month and incomes could rise 0.5 percent, which would be the most since May. The EUR fell against the USD and the CHF after the European Central Bank raised its estimate by 13 percent for write downs in countries using the 16-nation currency. The EUR also fell as the European Central Bank said that Banks may have to write down an additional 187 billion EUR ($268 billion) as loans to property companies and eastern European nations. “The European Central Bank won’t bail out debt-stricken member states such as Greece, which must repair its public finances on its own,” ECB governing member Ewals Nowotny said. On Friday, the EUR/USD fell to 1.4262, which was the lowest level since the beginning of September. After breaking the psychological and technical support of 1.5000 the EUR/CHF fell to its one-year low at 1.4850. On Friday, the USD-Index, which tracks the USD against the most traded currencies, climbed to a high of 78.141. It was the highest level since the beginning of September.

Since the middle of November, the USD/JPY has been moving less the resistance level at 90.60. After starting to move inside a bullish trend channel, the market has reached the resistance point for the third time. The market may take a short recovery to the lower line of the channel and breaks afterwards the resistance while making further gains inside the channel.

Since the beginning of the current month, the AUD/JPY has been moving in a bearish phase with a support level around 79.20. After its break under the support level on the 17th, the market pulled back and gained to the bearish trend line. It is the 5th time that the pair is moving less this point and this may be a signal for a repeatedly fall towards the support level around 79.20.