Treasury Bond and Note Traders Await Auction Results
James Hyerczyk from ForexHound.com at 10/27/09
December T-Bond and T-Notes traders are cautiously supporting prices in the pre-market in anticipation of the start of this week’s auction. The Treasury will be auctioning 2-Year Notes. Investors will be watching to see how much demand there will be for this debt. The size of the demand will set the interest rate. Traders won’t know the results until about 12:00 pm CDT. The release of these results should be a market mover. The charts indicate the T-Bonds are at retracement support at 117’18. The Ten-Year Notes are nearing support at 116’17. Resistance comes in at 117’27.
Equity traders will be watching housing, financial stocks and the state of the U.S. consumer for direction. Two reports, the Case-Shiller House Price Report and the U.S. Consumer Confidence Report come out at the same time today, 8 am CDT. The variable will be news out of Washington concerning the extension of the First-Time Buyer Credit Program. This news will be a market mover along with the auction results.
The December E-mini S&P 500 is nearing support at 1056.75 to 1047.00. The December E-mini Dow has a downside target of 9714 to 9630.
The U.S. Dollar is giving back some of its gains from yesterday. Traders are taking profits on the thought that yesterday’s break was overdone. The rally in the Dollar was triggered yesterday when the stock market broke sharply. Concerns about financial reform fueled the second broad-based equity market sell-off since Friday. Liquidation was across the board as no sector seemed to be safe.
The December Euro has settled down after yesterday’s sell-off. Any weakness in the stock market will pressure this currency pair today. The first downside target is 1.4771 to 1.4702. Based on early trading action, this price does not look like it will be reached today before it retraces to 1.4953.
The December British Pound is trading higher. The overnight move is most likely short-covering as the fundamentals still suggest lower markets. Traders are still speculating that the Bank of England will be forced to extend its asset-purchase program because of a bad Third Quarter GDP number. Although the market is up at this time, 1.6196 to 1.6079 is the best downside target. This current move could retrace to 1.6467 to 1.6519 before attracting selling pressure.
End-of-the-month repatriation by Japanese companies may be the reason why the December Japanese Yen is trading lower overnight. Oversold conditions are also contributing to the rally. Japanese traders have been speculating that the Fed would begin taking liquidity out of the market. The downside objective remains 1.0803 to 1.0669, but this market could retrace to 1.0970 to 1.1002 before the downtrend resumes.
The December Canadian Dollar is trading higher as technical factors are contributing to the overnight strength. Last night the market exceeded its downside target at .9363 before starting its profit-taking correction. The current strength could encourage buying back up to .9446. This next rally should be a good selling opportunity. The Bank of Canada still wants a lower currency and remains adamant about getting it to weaken.
December Gold is feeling pressure this morning despite the weaker Dollar. Yesterday support was broken at $1043.00, turning the main trend down. This doesn’t mean there can’t be a sizeable retracement to the upside before the selling pressure resumes. The next downside objective is $1028.80. December Copper posted a closing price reversal top yesterday. Until yesterday’s high is exceeded, this could become a major top. Watch for a follow-through break to confirm the start of a correction.
December Crude Oil sold off hard yesterday as demand for higher risk assets fell across the board when the Dollar strengthened. The recent rally has been fueled by a weaker Dollar, stronger equities and speculation. Another break in the equity markets could trigger a sizeable retracement to the lower 70’s. The short-term supply and demand picture does not support the current rallies. If traders start looking at the number then liquidation may begin.
