Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Oil N' Gold Team from Oil N' Gold at 10/22/09

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally resumed after brief consolidation and reached as high as 82.00 so far, meeting mentioned target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 77.61 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 81.72 will pave the way to next medium term fibonacci level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, though, below 77.61 will indicate that a short term top is likely in place, possibly with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should then be seen to 75 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours and Daily Charts