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FX Thoughts for the Day

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team from Kshitij Consultancy Service at 01/29/10


USD-CHF @ 1.0490/95...200-DMA Resistance holding
R: 1.0539 / 1.0572 / 1.0630
S: 1.0480 / 1.0450-30 / 1.0365

Swiss is continuing to trade below the 200-DMA Resistance (1.0539) and it is now oscillating around the Support at 1.050. If it continues to trade lower, we might see a downmove in the US session today towards next significant Support seen in 1.0450-30 region. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 1.0451. On the upside a strong break above the 200-DMA (1.0539) might increase the chances of further rise towards 1.07 in the coming week.

Today's close would have to be watched closely which since that would play a significant role in the direction of move in the coming weeks.

GBP-USD @ 1.6136/40...Multilayered Supports between 1.61-1.60
R: 1.6166-78 / 1.6231 / 1.6260
S: 1.6100 / 1.6028-18 / 1.5864

The Cable continues to find Support at 1.61 for today. There are multi-layered Supports between 1.61-1.60 which is likely to hold for today. It being the last trading day of the week, the pair may not opt to break below this Support region. 1.60 being a wedge Support on the weekly candles in which the pair has been oscillating over the last several weeks, may not be broken in a hurry. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6260 and 1.6028 respectively.

One has to be wary of US Q4 '09 GDP numbers that are scheduled to be announced today.

 AUD-USD @ 0.8949/53...Crucial Support at 0.8870
R: 0.9007 / 0.9047 / 0.9100
S: 0.8940 / 0.8870 / 0.8780

Aussie has risen during the day and is now once again trading above the Support at 0.8940 which was broken on the downside in the early Asian session today. If it continues to trade higher we might see a rise towards the 100-DMA Resistance (0.9047) in the coming sessions. Note that this 100-DMA is providing a good Resistance for the last couple of days. The 61.8% Fibanacci Fanline Resistance at 0.9100 is the next significant Resistance level seen above the 100-DMA.

On the downside 0.8870 is the crucial Support a break below which might see further downmove towards 0.8750-30 which would be a great threat for the strong uptrend seen since Mar-09.

Also to be noted is that the 21-Week-MA is at 0.9007. A close below 0.9007 would be the first close below the 21-Week-MA since Mar-09. This would add further downside pressure.

Happy Trading!

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