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Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank at 10/27/09


Comment: Leading the pack and the one with the neatest price action of all the Yen crosses. Rallying strongly from decent support between 140.00 and 142.00, retracing half of the declines since August. This, combined with the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ (note how much bigger it gets over the coming month) should send this pair down again, hopefully quickly. Though moving averages have crossed to bullish, these should provide resistance to the Lagging Span so watch for an interim top to form around 152.00 this week. Also look for confirmation from other Yen crosses which ought to at least display signs of instability, or better still reversal formations, in the weekly candles.

A weekly close above 154.00 would force us to review.

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