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Good Auction Demand Sends Treasury Bonds Higher

James Hyerczyk from ForexHound.com at 01/14/10


March Treasury Bonds surged to the upside and erased all of Wednesday’s losses following the weak U.S. economic reports. Traders reacted to the possibility of interest rates staying lower for a long-time.  Today’s Treasury bond action also went off without a hitch, generating more interest in the long side of the market.  The charts indicate the next upside objective is 117’14.  Conditions could weaken again if 116’28 fails to hold as support.


Equity markets finished higher following the release of weaker than expected U.S. economic data.  Stocks initially showed signs of weakness following higher than expected initial claims and a lower U.S. Retail Sales Report.  Investors looked at the break as a buying opportunity.  The strong close put the major indices in a position to close at new highs for the week.


The weaker Dollar is helped to support February Gold.  Traders also appeared to have shaken off the negative news from China from earlier in the week.  On Tuesday, China made a decision to raise reserve requirements. Traders believe this will lead to a drop in demand for commodities, causing gold to lose its appeal as a hedge against inflation.  Technically, a new short-term range has been created at $1163.00 to $1118.50. This range creates a retracement zone at $1140.70 to $1146.00.  Closing above this zone will put gold in a position to test the $1163.00 high again.


March Crude Oil trading a little better but inside Wednesday’s range.  Earlier in the week, the market found support at a major 50% price at 78.99.  Breaking this level will trigger a further decline to 77.70.  Oversold conditions could trigger a retracement rally to 81.63. Renewed demand for commodities and other higher priced assets could support further upside action tomorrow.


The U.S. Dollar finished lower against a basket of currencies for the fifth straight day in sluggish trading. Contributing to the weakness were reports that U.S. Jobless Claims rose last week by the largest amount in five weeks and U.S. Retail Sales were down. 


Both reports show that employment is still a major issue affecting the economy as well as consumer spending.  Traders pressed the Dollar most of the day and wouldn’t allow it to get away by too much on the upside. Today’s economic data suggests the Fed will keep interest rates lower for a prolonged period of time which is once again driving up demand for higher yielding assets.


The European Central Bank left interest rates at 1% as expected. The March Euro weakened a bit after ECB President Trichet failed to spark interest in the upside following his assessment of economic conditions in the Euro Zone region. The trading range was tight most of the day following the report. The chart indicates 1.4680 is still a possible upside target. 


The weak U.S. economic data helped turnaround the March Japanese Yen after a lower opening.  The failure to reach a 50% level at 1.0851 was the first sign of strength.  The second sign would have been a trade through the high for the week at 1.1026, but this price held as resistance.  A trade through this level tomorrow will put the market in a position to strengthen further with 1.1273 the next upside target.


The March Swiss Franc tried to breakout to the downside through a 50% price at .9806 before failing to attract aggressive sellers.  Upside momentum pushed it back inside a retracement zone with .9873 the next potential upside target.  Weak U.S. economic data made the Swiss Franc more attractive. Gains were most likely limited because of the threat of intervention by the Swiss National Bank.


The March Canadian Dollar worked to a new high for the week. Greater demand for gold, copper and natural gas helped to support the Canadian Dollar. Look for this currency to remain strong as long as there is demand for raw materials. Long traders have to be careful down in this area because of possible action by the Bank of Canada to weaken the Canadian Dollar. .9792 was the high in October at the time the BoC issued a stern warning regarding the price of the currency.


The March British Pound traded higher after erasing earlier losses. The strong close has this market in a position to test a 50% price at 1.6351.  Upside momentum could take this market to the next level at 1.6475. The British Pound turned the main trend to up on the daily chart earlier in the week when it crossed a main top at 1.6235.  This move was primarily driven by a Bank of England member’s call for higher interest rates later in the year. 


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