The USD dropped to 0.9227 against the AUD

Varengold Bank Research Team from Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG at 01/07/10

Good morning from Hamburg and welcome. We approach the end of the week and the AUD could continue its upward trend while the USD traded near a three week low against the EUR. However, we wish you much success in trading today.

The CAD could rise for a fifth straight day, as copper and gold rose. Crude Oil, the nation’s biggest export, reached its highest level in almost 15 months. Furthermore Canadian reports this week forecast that the nation’s employers added 20,000 jobs in December 2009. In contrast to the U.S. companies which cut 84,000 jobs last month, more than expected. The USD dropped to 1.0320 against the CAD. Also the EUR traded near a three week high against the USD as signs that the global economic recovery is gathering momentum. This increases the demand for higher yielding assets. The USD traded at 1.4405 per EUR. The JPY was at 132.87 versus the EUR after weakening to 133.38. The AUD could continue its bullish trend against 15 of its 16 major counterparts after retail sales climbed by the most in eight months in November 2009. The USD dropped to 0.9227 against the AUD.

This month, the Bank of Canada plans to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low and will probably boost the rate to 0.75% in the third quarter of 2010.

Since the middle of December, the USD has been trading in a bearish trend against the PLN. Recently, the currency pair couldn’t cross its Fibonacci Retracement line at 2.8541 (61.8%) and the prices rebounded. Now it seems that the USD will continue its downward trend. A crossing MA Oscillator may support with a breakthrough by the signal line from the top. But it remains to be seen if the next support level around 2.8247 (50.0%) could be strong enough to stop the actual trend.

As you can see, the USD is trading in a bearish trend channel against the CAD. Now it seems that the currency pair is ready to recover when it touches its Pivot point at 1.0280 together with the bottom line of the trend channel. A few days before, we had the same situation and the prices recovered. Also the RSI may indicate an increasing trend for the EUR, but we need to wait if these signs are enough to stop the bearish trend.