USDCAD broke above the falling price channel

Franco Shao from ForexCycle.com at 11/18/09

 

USDCAD broke above the falling price channel on 4-hour chart. However, the rise can reach 1.0617 level only. Now the fall from 1.0617 is more likely resumption of downtrend from 1.0852, and another fall towards 1.0206 previous low is still in favor. Key support is at 1.0416, a break below this level will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.0617 and confirm the resumption of downtrend. On the up side, above 1.0617 will suggest that the fall from 1.0852 has completed at 1.0416 already, then further rally could be seen to 1.0700 zone.